Developments in 2018
In 2018, there were 11 fatal accidents that resulted in 523 fatalities among passengers and crew. This contrasts with an average of 8.8 fatal accidents and approximately 234 fatalities per year in the previous five-year period, from 2013 to 2017, and with 2017’s record-low 6 fatal accidents and 19 passenger and crew fatalities. Notwithstanding 2018’s higher numbers, the year’s performance still means that on average a passenger could take a flight every day for 16,581 years before experiencing a fatal accident in which all on board perish.
The all-accident rate (measured in accidents per 1 million flights) in 2018 was 1.35, the equivalent of 1 accident for every 740,000 flights. This was an improvement over the all-accident rate of 1.79, or 1 accident for every 559,000 flights, in the 2013–2017 period, but a decline compared with 2017’s record-low all-accident rate of 1.11.
The same pattern held for major accidents. The 2018 rate for major jet accidents (measured in jet hull losses per 1 million flights) was 0.19, the equivalent of 1 major accident for every 5.4 million flights. This was an improvement over the rate for the previous five years, from 2013 to 2017, of 1 accident for every 3.4 million flights but not as good as the rate of 0.12 in 2017.
Another way to look at aviation’s 2018 safety performance is to ask, what would have happened if the industry had performed at 2013 levels? The answer is that it would have experienced 109 accidents in 2018, rather than 62, with 38 hull losses, instead of the 12 that did occur, simply based on the greater number of flights operated in 2018.
The industry’s solid progress in safety aside, everyone in air transport is shocked and challenged by the crashes of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft operated by Lion Air (29 October 2018) and Ethiopian Airlines (10 March 2019). These two tragedies, occurring only four months apart under what appear to be broadly similar circumstances, led to the global grounding of this model of aircraft.
IATA respects the decision of regulatory authorities globally to ground the 737 MAX. And though IATA has no role in the process, it looks to the aircraft manufacturer to cooperate with the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and other safety regulators in developing a safe and robust solution that addresses all identified concerns. At the same time, there is no substitute for thorough and timely investigations of both accidents. Safety is a top priority in aviation, and what is learned from every accident investigation is vital to the efforts to further safety.